Trump Isn't Seeking Any Escalation in the Middle East. Netanyahu May Spark One in the West Bank - West Bank News
The West Bank is shaping up to be the main arena of tension between the government and the Israel Defense Forces in the run-up to the October 27 general election. In Iran, Lebanon and Gaza, it is largely Donald Trump who determines the rules of the game.
For now, it seems the U.S. president is not seeking a new escalation in the Middle East before the November 3 midterms. Yet Trump is leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu some room for carrying out military operations, as is evident in the Israel Air Force's repeated attacks in the Strip and, to a lesser extent, in Lebanon.
The West Bank is a different matter. The violence there, particularly the attacks by Jewish terrorists against Palestinians, is eliciting considerable global attention. For now, the Trump administration, with the exception of occasional expressions of shock by the U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, is disinclined to intervene in a significant manner.
In the background is the growing concern of the settlers – and their most effective representative in the government, Bezalel Smotrich, that the bastards are going to change the rules after the election: The rampant settlement construction, the expulsions of and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank ever since this government was sworn in, in December 2022, might come to an end.
On Monday, Netanyahu paid a surprise, and untypical, visit to IDF Central Command headquarters in Jerusalem. After being informed of it on short notice, Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir hurried to join him, each for his own reasons. Netanyahu and Katz heard reviews by senior officers, who emphasized their concerns over losing control of the West Bank given the sharp spike in the number and intensity of violent incidents initiated by the Jewish side in the West Bank.
At first, only very specific parts of the verbal exchanges were leaked to the media. It was reported that Netanyahu asked to be shown an IDF plan to counter a rapid escalation in which, for the first time since 2002's Operation Defensive Shield, security forces of the Palestinian Authority would turn their guns against the IDF. The chief of staff said his people were not aware that the prime minister had wanted to see such a plan and that it would be presented soon.
In the background is a fear that, given the growing number of settler attacks on Palestinian communities adjacent to settlement outposts in Areas A and B of the West Bank – under the Oslo Accords, the former are under full Palestinian control, the latter under Israeli military but Palestinian civil control – the PA could begin arming local defense units in those villages that would open fire during a subsequent attack.
In practice, one reason this scenario has not yet played out is that the leaders of the Palestinian Authority are very intent on preventing a large conflagration in the West Bank that could affect the results of the election in Israel.
Netanyahu, in his visit to the Central Command and with the subsequent leaks, scored several wins. He introduced into public discourse the possibility that the PA would collapse, positioned himself as demanding that the military prepare for a worst-case scenario (something he neglected to do before October 7) and guaranteed that the media presents the IDF chief of staff as having failed to do his homework.
Some military officials even fear that Netanyahu may be laying the ground for a deliberate deterioration of the situation in the West Bank in order to pull the focus of the election away from the failures that enabled the massacres in Gaza-border communities.
On Thursday, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit issued a statement following a multifront situation assessment convened that morning by the chief of staff.
Zamir told the senior brass that the IDF "will be on full, multi-front alert during the holiday season" and ordered the 98th Division placed on alert so that it could assume responsibility for half of the West Bank if needed, while the Judea and Samaria Division continues to handle the other half.
It was leaked to the media that the IDF was considering suspending leave during the fall holidays for reservists on active duty.
Netanyahu and Zamir are engaged in a complex political dance. It's obvious that Zamir suspects the government's intentions in light of the coalition parties' poor showing in the polls and wants to keep the army from being dragged into new military adventures that stem from political considerations.
In response to Netanyahu's earlier trick, the chief of staff is signaling that the military is ready for any scenario while indirectly drawing public attention to the coalition's political ruses. Zamir is criticized daily on the government's Channel 14 News, which has marked him as an enemy of the state.
All this fits in with declarations by various mouthpieces who have begun hinting at a possibility of a mass refusal to accept the election's results, if these end with a loss to the Netanyahu bloc. Many people on the right – including Smotrich and settlement leaders – do not conceal their desire for an escalation of the confrontations in the West Bank.
Beyond the impact on the election, such a development could allow them to justify an Israeli operation to topple the Palestinian Authority, followed by a more massive occupation and expulsion of Palestinians, such as the one carried out in recent years in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli media largely take interest in the West Bank only in the wake of large incidents or widely echoing provocations, such as the settlers' "hike" in the village of Tell that ended in the deaths of two Israelis and four Palestinians, and the sledgehammer attack by MK Tzvi Succot (Religious Zionism) on a memorial in the village of Madama.
A deliberate escalation in attacks on Palestinians is already evident. This is likely to get worse as the election approaches. On Saturday, there were new settler attacks; the main one, again, in the village of Qusra, south of Nablus. It will be interesting to see what of all this is known and understood in Washington, and whether the Trump administration is considering the possibility that the West Bank will be the source of his next worry.